Wolfe Research Downgrades Rivian on Rising Cash Burn Risks

Font: Financial Modeling Prep  • Jan 12, 2026

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform by Wolfe Research, which set a price target of $16.

The firm said the risk-reward profile for Rivian had become increasingly challenging at current levels. While near-term and long-term fundamentals had deteriorated, Wolfe said enthusiasm surrounding Rivian’s autonomy platform had driven a sharp rally in the shares.

Looking ahead to 2026, Wolfe argued that Street estimates remained too optimistic, forecasting an EBITDA loss of $2.1 billion compared with consensus expectations of a $1.76 billion loss. The analyst also expected free cash flow burn to accelerate to more than $4 billion, driven by higher capital expenditures, operating costs, and working-capital pressures.

Wolfe flagged downside risk to near-term demand for the R2 model, with volumes likely skewed heavily toward the fourth quarter of 2026. Unlike Tesla, the firm said Rivian lacked near-term autonomy or AI-related catalysts, with major technology launches not expected until late 2026.