Walmart Forecast Disappoints as Retailer Flags Economic Uncertainty

Font: Financial Modeling Prep  • Feb 19, 2026

Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) issued a full-year earnings outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations, citing “substantial uncertainty” related to currency movements, tariffs, consumer spending trends, and global developments.

The Arkansas-based retailer guided for fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share between $2.75 and $2.85, below Bloomberg consensus estimates of $2.97. For the first quarter, Walmart projected adjusted earnings of $0.63 to $0.65 per share, compared with Wall Street expectations of $0.69.

In the fourth quarter, Walmart reported adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share on revenue of $190.66 billion, slightly ahead of analyst forecasts of $0.73 per share and $190.58 billion in revenue.

Walmart’s performance came as economists increasingly suggested that U.S. economic growth has been driven primarily by higher-income households and corporations, while lower-income consumers have faced pressure from elevated living costs and a softer labor market.

Comparable sales at Walmart’s U.S. stores increased 4.6%, excluding fuel, in the 13 weeks ended January 30. Sales during the key holiday shopping period were partly supported by spending from higher-income households, although gains were broad-based across merchandise categories.

E-commerce continued to expand, accounting for a record 23% of total sales, fueled by demand for faster delivery services. Walmart has partnered with OpenAI and Google to incorporate artificial intelligence into operational efficiencies and enhance the digital shopping experience.

Membership fee income declined 11.2%, reflecting a comparison against prior-year proceeds from an insurance recovery, the company said.