First Watch Restaurant Group's Market Performance and Outlook

Font: Financial Modeling Prep  • Feb 24, 2026

• Piper Sandler maintains an "Overweight" rating for NASDAQ:FWRG, with a revised price target from $22 to $19.
• The company reported a 20% revenue increase and earnings per share of $0.24, surpassing analysts' expectations.
• First Watch's guidance for 2026 indicates a slowdown in revenue growth, same-store sales growth, and store count growth due to macroeconomic pressures.

First Watch Restaurant Group, trading under the symbol NASDAQ:FWRG, is a prominent player in the restaurant industry, known for its breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company has been expanding its footprint with a focus on increasing store count and enhancing same-store sales. However, it faces competition from other casual dining chains, which adds pressure to maintain growth and profitability.

On February 24, 2026, Piper Sandler maintained an "Overweight" rating for FWRG, suggesting confidence in the stock's potential despite a "hold" action. At that time, the stock was priced at $12.59. Piper Sandler also adjusted its price target for First Watch, lowering it from $22 to $19, reflecting a more cautious outlook.

The stock experienced a significant drop of 13% following the announcement of its fourth-quarter earnings. Despite a 20% revenue increase and earnings per share of $0.24, which tripled analysts' expectations, the market reacted negatively. This was due to the company's cautious guidance for 2026, which projected lower growth rates compared to previous years.

First Watch reported an 11% increase in store count and a 3.6% rise in same-store sales for the full year. However, the guidance for 2026 indicated a slowdown, with expected revenue growth of 12% to 14% and same-store sales growth of 1% to 3%. The anticipated store count growth is also expected to slow to 9%, down from historical double-digit rates.

CEO Chris Tomasso highlighted the cautious stance, citing macroeconomic pressures affecting the entire restaurant sector. As of now, FWRG's stock is priced at $12.32, having decreased by 20.52% with a $3.18 change. The stock has fluctuated between $12.18 and $14.48 today, with a market cap of approximately $751.92 million and a trading volume of 10.23 million shares.