McDonald's (MCD) Price Target Cut by TD Cowen

Font: Financial Modeling Prep  • Sep 24, 2026

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) Price Target Lowered Amid Market Challenges

• TD Cowen lowered its price target for McDonald's to $270 from $282 while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.
• McDonald's shares fell 4.81% on September 23, 2026, closing at $238.32 after investor concerns around inflation, flat restaurant traffic, and the company’s latest strategy update.
• The new $270 price target still implies potential upside of about 13.29% from the $238.32 closing price, while future growth depends partly on the McDonald's > NEXT strategy and analyst expectations for EPS of about $3.39 for the current quarter.

TD Cowen lowered its price target for McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) to $270 from $282, while keeping a Hold rating on the stock. McDonald's is the world’s largest restaurant chain by systemwide sales and serves tens of millions of customers daily across its global restaurant network.

The price target cut came during a difficult period for McDonald's stock. Shares closed at $238.32 on September 23, 2026, down 4.81% for the day. The stock also traded near multi-year lows as investors reacted to pressure from persistent inflation, weak customer traffic trends, and concerns about the cost of the company’s long-term restaurant improvement plans.

Investor caution has been tied to a challenging restaurant industry environment. CEO Chris Kempczinski said on CNBC that McDonald's does not expect high inflation and flat traffic to disappear quickly. He described this as the new operating reality for the industry, meaning the company may need to rely more on market-share gains, menu innovation, and productivity improvements to support growth.

McDonald's also outlined its McDonald's > NEXT strategy, which focuses on driving more customer visits, improving restaurant productivity, and expanding category share in chicken and beverages. The company is targeting 1.5 percentage points of market-share gains in both chicken and beverages by 2030 while maintaining its leadership in beef.

The strategy also includes significant support for franchisees. McDonald's plans to provide about $8.5 billion in total NEXT partnering support through 2036, including around $5 billion through 2030, through a mix of rent relief and capital support. The company also aims to expand its operating margin to the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030.

Despite the weaker stock performance, the lowered $270 price target still implies about 13.29% upside from the $238.32 closing price. Analysts also expect McDonald's to report EPS of about $3.39 for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. EPS, or earnings per share, measures a company’s profit allocated to each common share.